Italian M&A changes coming in 2026: the new takeover and golden power rules

Massimo Guffanti head of Corporate and Commercial Law at The Italian Lawyer

written by Massimo Guffanti
head or Corporate and Commercial

 

If your company is evaluating an acquisition in Italy, or if you are a fund manager modelling a take-private scenario for an Italian listed asset, the rulebook has shifted significantly in 2026.

International investors now face a new structural reality for pricing and closing deals. The convergence of a reformed Consolidated Law on Finance (TUF), a recalibrated Golden Power regime (Law No. 4/2026) and the 2026 Budget Law has created a distinct environment for M&A.

Last year we saw a massive increase of activity in the merger and acquisition space. This guide, written by our corporate and commercial team at The Italian Lawyer, breaks down the critical changes you must navigate with the new rules introduced in 2026: the new 30% mandatory bid threshold, the “economic security” screening test and the specific tax impacts on exit.

What matters for your business this year is predictability. The new rules offer a clearer path to control for public takeovers but introduce a more complex screening timeline for strategic assets. Our objective here is to help you model these regulatory shifts before you sign the term sheet.

Capital markets reform: a clearer path to control

For corporate buyers and private equity sponsors targeting listed Italian companies, the revised Consolidated Law on Finance (TUF) has significantly altered the tactical playbook in 2026.

Historically, our clients often wrestled with the fragmentation between “SME” and “non-SME” issuers. Depending on the target’s size, the mandatory bid threshold could fluctuate between 25% and 30%, creating unnecessary friction during stakebuilding.

If you are a strategic buyer expanding into Italy or a private equity fund looking to acquire a significant stake or take an Italian company private, these are the three structural changes you need to factor into your deal model:

1. A single 30% mandatory bid threshold

The distinction between SME and large issuers is gone. A single 30% threshold now applies across the board. If you acquire voting rights or share capital exceeding this level in any listed Italian entity, a mandatory bid for the remaining shares is triggered.

Our top tip: You can now build a significant minority stake—a “toe-hold”—up to 29.9% with absolute certainty, without worrying about tripping a lower SME threshold by accident. This makes strategic pre-bid positioning far more predictable.

2. A 90% squeeze-out threshold

One of the most welcome changes for international funds is the lowering of the squeeze-out threshold from 95% to 90%. In the past, reaching 95% to force out minority shareholders was a major hurdle, often leaving bidders stuck with a listed stub and ongoing compliance costs.

Our top tip: Public-to-private transactions become far more feasible. If your tender offer reaches 90%, you can exercise the right to purchase the remaining shares and delist the company immediately. This reduces the “hold-out” leverage of minority shareholders and provides a cleaner exit from the public markets.

3. The new cash merger route

Perhaps the most significant innovation is the statutory cash merger mechanism, inspired by US practice. This provides an alternative to the traditional two-step process of a tender offer followed by a merger.

Our top tip: You can propose a merger directly to the target’s board, offering cash for 100% of the shares. If the board and a qualified majority of shareholders approve it (typically two-thirds of voting capital), the merger binds all shareholders, including dissenters. This is a powerful tool for friendly acquisitions where you want 100% ownership from day one without the uncertainty of a public tender acceptance period.

“In the first half of 2025, Italian M&A deal volume fell 17% year-on-year, but aggregate deal value rose 17% to €44.6 billion, driven largely by domestic bank consolidation. Financial services alone accounted for 33% of total Italian M&A value, after a 1,973% surge compared with the prior period.”

Golden power and FDI screening: the “economic security” hurdle

If you are a US or UK corporate acquiring an Italian target in tech, banking, energy, defence or critical infrastructure, or if you are a non-EU fund looking to take control of a strategic Italian asset, the Golden Power regime now operates under a reformed framework that directly affects your deal timeline and certainty.
 
Italy’s Golden Power rules were already broad, covering sectors from 5G and cloud computing to financial services and semiconductors. What changed in January 2026 is both the legal definition of “strategic interest” and the way Golden Power reviews coordinate with EU authorities.
 
The trigger for this reform was political. In late 2025, the Italian government used Golden Power to impose conditions on UniCredit’s proposed acquisition of Banco BPM, citing risks to “economic and financial security.” The European Commission responded by opening an infringement procedure, arguing that Italy’s FDI rules were encroaching on EU competences in banking supervision and capital movement.
 
Law No. 4 of 15 January 2026 was Italy’s answer. It recalibrates the regime without dismantling it. Here are the three changes that matter for your deal:
 

Update 1: The new “economic and financial security” test

Golden Power reviews can now explicitly assess threats to national economic and financial security, not just traditional national security concerns like defence or critical infrastructure.
 
In practice, this means transactions involving Italian banks, insurance companies or systemically important financial institutions can be screened based on concerns about credit flows, savings protection and exposure to foreign jurisdictions. Our clients in the financial services sector have noted that this broadens the scope significantly, especially for deals involving non-EU buyers.
 
Our top tip: If your target generates revenue from financial services, expect Golden Power to be a live issue. Early engagement with advisors who understand both the technical FDI rules and the political context is essential.
 

Update 2: Coordination with EU banking and competition authorities

One of the key procedural shifts is that Golden Power reviews in the banking and insurance sectors now follow, rather than run parallel to, European Central Bank (ECB) and EU merger control clearances.
 
The new rules state that the clock for Golden Power notifications starts only after EU supervisory procedures have concluded. This was designed to address the Commission’s infringement concerns by ensuring Italy does not pre-empt EU-level decisions.
 
Our top tip: Your deal timeline must now account for a staggered regulatory sequence. If you need ECB approval, Golden Power review will add weeks or months after that clearance. Structure your long-stop dates and financing commitments accordingly. We typically advise clients to assume a minimum of 60–90 days for Golden Power after EU clearance is granted.
 

Update 3: Pre-notification has become a critical tool

Italy’s Golden Power framework allows buyers to engage in pre-notification discussions with the Prime Minister’s office before formally filing. Given the expanded “economic security” scope and the coordination complexity, we are seeing far more sophisticated buyers using this route.
 
Pre-notification allows you to test whether your transaction will trigger a full review, what concerns the authorities might raise and what behavioural or structural remedies could be on the table. Our corporate clients have found this particularly useful in banking and tech deals, where the political sensitivity is high but the legal boundaries are unclear.
 
Our top tip: If your acquisition involves a target with significant Italian operations, workforce or customer base in a sensitive sector, initiate pre-notification discussions at the term sheet stage. This can save you from unpleasant surprises post-signing.

“According to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2024, FDI inflows into Italy reached USD 32.1 billion in 2023, with inward FDI stock rising to USD 499.2 billion. Manufacturing accounts for 29.1% of total FDI stock, followed by professional, scientific and technical activities (15%) and information and communication (10.9%). EY’s Attractiveness Survey 2024 notes that the number of FDI projects in Italy has nearly doubled compared to pre-pandemic levels, from just over 100 to more than 200 per year.”

The Italian Lawyer - International business executives in Italy boardroom celebrating successful Italian M&A deal in 2026 under new rules with handshake

Tax and incentives: how the 2026 budget law affects deal economics

The 2026 Budget Law, which came into force on 1 January, has reshaped the financial architecture of Italian M&A in two opposing directions. On one side, it has made certain exit strategies more expensive. On the other, it has introduced powerful capital investment incentives that can materially improve post-acquisition returns if your business plan includes capex.

The tightening: dividend and capital gains rules

Historically, dividends flowing from Italian subsidiaries to UK or EU parent companies enjoyed a near-automatic 95% exemption from Italian corporate tax, resulting in an effective rate of around 1.2%. Similarly, capital gains on share disposals often qualified for a 95% participation exemption (PEX), allowing sellers to exit with minimal Italian tax.
 
From 1 January 2026, these preferential regimes are available only where specific minimum shareholding thresholds are met. The thresholds align with traditional PEX criteria, meaning that minority or portfolio-style investments no longer qualify automatically.
 
For PE funds and strategic buyers, this changes the maths on exit. If your acquisition strategy involves taking a significant but non-controlling stake (for example, 20–25% in a joint venture or co-investment), the gain on exit may now be fully taxable in Italy. Our clients in mid-market funds are revisiting their holding structures to ensure they clear the new thresholds before committing capital.

The opportunity: hyper-depreciation and regional tax credits

The Budget Law also introduces a generous capital investment incentive scheme, available from 1 January 2026 through 30 September 2028. If your post-acquisition plan includes modernising production facilities, upgrading technology or expanding capacity, the fiscal benefit can be substantial.
 
The mechanism works by increasing the fiscally deductible cost of qualifying capital goods by the following percentages:
 
Investment Bracket Fiscal Boost
Up to €2.5 million 180%
€2.5 million – €10 million 100%
€10 million – €20 million 50%
 
In practical terms, if your Italian subsidiary invests €1 million in new machinery, you can deduct €2.8 million against Italian taxable income over the depreciation period. This accelerates tax relief and improves post-deal cash flow significantly.
 
Additionally, the 2026 Budget extends and enhances the ZES Unica (Single Special Economic Zone) tax credit for investments in Southern Italy. If your target operates or plans to expand in regions like Campania, Puglia, Calabria or Sicily, you may qualify for a 40% tax credit on capital expenditure, subject to annual expenditure caps.

How our clients are using this

We are seeing corporate buyers and sponsors build these incentives directly into their acquisition models. Targets with ageing assets or under-invested facilities are being re-priced based on the post-deal capex tax relief. The key is ensuring your business plan captures the investment within the 2026–2028 window and that the target’s corporate structure allows the buyer to claim the relief without triggering state aid or other restrictions.

Secure your Italian deal with 2026-ready legal advice

The window for structuring efficient Italian acquisitions is open, but the regulatory landscape requires precise navigation. Do not leave your deal timeline to chance.

Sector watch: where the new rules bite hardest

Technology and digital infrastructure

If you are acquiring an Italian tech company with cloud infrastructure, AI capabilities or significant data processing operations, expect Golden Power to be front and centre. We are seeing notification requirements triggered at relatively low thresholds, particularly where the target has government contracts or processes data for critical sectors like health, finance or energy.
 
One of our recent corporate clients acquired a Milan-based SaaS platform serving Italian municipalities. Despite the target generating only €15 million in annual revenue, the transaction required full Golden Power filing because the platform processed citizen data for local government services. The review took 75 days and resulted in behavioural commitments around data residency and security protocols.
 
The takeaway here is simple: if your target touches public sector data, critical infrastructure or operates in AI, robotics or semiconductors, assume Golden Power applies and build the timeline accordingly.

Banking and financial services

The financial services sector is where the 2026 reforms create the most friction. The new “economic and financial security” test means that even intra-EU bank acquisitions can face intrusive review if the transaction is perceived to affect credit flows, savings protection or financial stability.
 
We have seen the Italian authorities impose conditions on bank deals that go well beyond traditional competition or prudential concerns. These can include requirements to maintain lending volumes in specific regions, restrictions on headquarters relocation and commitments around employment levels.
 
For international buyers, the coordination requirement with the ECB adds a further layer of complexity. The positive side is that once the ECB clears the transaction, the parameters of the Golden Power review are often clearer. The negative side is that you cannot assume approval is automatic, even after satisfying EU-level supervisors.
 
Our clients in private equity are increasingly using the cash merger route for mid-sized Italian banks where they have strong board support, precisely to avoid the uncertainty of a hostile or contested tender process in a sector where political risk is elevated.

Our top legal tips for dealmakers in 2026

Tip 1: Model Golden Power into your timeline from day one

Do not treat FDI screening as a formality. If your target operates in banking, tech, energy or any sector with government exposure, assume 60–90 days for Golden Power review after EU clearance. Build this into your long-stop dates and financing commitments.
 

Tip 2: Use the new takeover tools strategically

The 90% squeeze-out threshold and the cash merger route give you far more flexibility for public deals. If you have board support and a clear majority of institutional shareholders, the cash merger can deliver 100% ownership faster and with less execution risk than a traditional tender offer.
 

Tip 3: Price in the tax incentives

If your acquisition involves an Italian target with capex needs, the hyper-depreciation regime (180% fiscal boost on the first €2.5 million) can materially improve your IRR. Make sure your business plan captures investments within the 2026–2028 window and that you allocate the benefit correctly in the sale and purchase agreement.
 

Tip 4: Engage early on sensitive deals

For transactions in banking, insurance or critical infrastructure, pre-notification with the Prime Minister’s office is now standard practice. Our clients who invest the time in pre-filing discussions consistently achieve faster, cleaner outcomes than those who file cold.

Your bridge to Italian M&A: London-based, globally connected

Successfully closing an Italian deal in 2026 requires more than a strong financial model. It demands a clear understanding of how the new TUF takeover rules, Golden Power screening and the 2026 Budget Law changes will shape your timetable, risk profile and returns, no matter where your board sits—London, New York, Toronto, Singapore, Sydney, or elsewhere in the English‑speaking world.
 
Our corporate and commercial team at The Italian Lawyer offers the cross‑border bridge your business needs. Based in London and connected directly to Italian regulators, courts and local firms, we help you turn the new M&A landscape into a predictable, well‑structured process, rather than a sequence of regulatory surprises. We work with international boards, in‑house counsel and funds, translating Italian legal and regulatory requirements into practical, board‑ready decisions in clear English.

FAQ: Italian M&A in 2026

1. What is a realistic timeline for an Italian cross-border deal in 2026?

For a clean mid-sized transaction, expect 6–9 months from first term sheet to closing. If the target is in a sensitive sector (banking, energy, tech) or listed, plan for 9–12 months. The 2026 Golden Power reforms add specific coordination steps with EU authorities, meaning regulatory clearance is no longer just a box-ticking exercise but a critical path item that dictates your long-stop date.

2. Should we use an Italian or foreign vehicle for the acquisition?

Most international buyers use an Italian NewCo (S.p.A. or S.r.l.) wholly owned by their foreign holding company. This simplifies debt push-downs, merger clearance, and access to local tax incentives like the new 2026 hyper-depreciation. While the Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) is often governed by English law for predictability, the transfer deed itself must be notarised in Italy to be valid.

3. What specific due diligence “red flags” do foreign buyers often miss?

Beyond standard financials, look for:
  • Compliance failures: Missing corporate books or invalid past resolutions.
  • Employee liabilities: Hidden costs from national collective bargaining agreements (CCNL) and severance (TFR).
  • Permit risks: Critical operational licences that may not automatically transfer upon change of control.
  • 231 Model: Lack of a robust compliance model under Legislative Decree 231/2001, which exposes the company to criminal liability for employee actions.

4. How does Italian antitrust interact with the new Golden Power rules?

They are separate tracks. Antitrust (AGCM or EU) focuses on market dominance and pricing. Golden Power focuses on national security and the new “economic/financial security” test. In 2026, for banking and insurance deals, Golden Power review formally follows EU regulatory clearance, creating a staggered timeline. You cannot close until both authorities have issued their distinct approvals, so your deal conditionality must reflect this sequence.

5. Can we implement our standard management incentive plan post-closing?

Not automatically. US or UK-style stock option plans and “bad leaver” provisions must be adapted to Italian labour law and tax rules to be enforceable. Simply translating a foreign plan often leads to disputes or unexpected tax liabilities for beneficiaries. We recommend designing a bespoke Italian addendum to your group scheme that aligns with local employment regulations and takes advantage of favourable tax treatment for capital gains.

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